Falling prices kicked off

Through the comparison of domestic and foreign housing prices, we know that China’s current housing prices are far too high. With the fact that the housing vacancy rate and the population of the future are drastically reduced, we know that China’s future housing demand will decline rapidly. From this, we can conclude that the current decline in house prices, real estate adjustments, it is an inevitable trend. However, the question of how to reduce or where the prices of Chinese housing are dropped is also a difficult problem in the decision-making wisdom.

In recent years, high prices have taken the Chinese people out of breath. In recent months, prices in some cities have seen an inflection point of decline. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the average price index of the housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in October this year showed negative growth for the first time in a year, with an average decrease of 0.14% from the previous quarter. According to a report by the People's Daily on November 21, the minimum filing price for hardcover rooms launched in July this year in Qingpu, Shanghai, was 16,400 yuan per square meter, which is now down to 11,200 yuan, a drop of more than 30%.

Does Shanghai's housing prices drop by 30%? Compare the level of house prices to have a reference. Let us use the price of the United States as a reference to see whether the price in China is high or low.

According to the US Bureau of Statistics, in September 2011, the median price of new home transactions in the United States was 204,400 U.S. dollars (including real estate prices). The median occupancy of indoor housing in the United States is 177 square meters and the median real estate area is 1,416 square meters. If 70% of the room rate is calculated, the 177 square meters of floor space will be equivalent to 253 square meters of floor area. In addition, there is an average of 50 square meters of garages in American housing. The total area of ​​buildings added is 303 square meters. U.S. housing is mostly an independent house, which is what we call a villa. The gardens and swimming pools on the estate are gifts.

The U.S. federal government has subsidized the purchase of the first set of self-contained homes for families whose annual income is less than 150,000 U.S. dollars. The lower the income, the more subsidy it will have. In 2010, a total of 2.1 million families in the United States received a government subsidy for housing purchases. On average, each household received a housing subsidy of US$7,429. If the government subsidy is partially removed from the price, there will be 19,971 us dollars left by the person paying the house.

The median household net income of the United States in 2010 is 49,445 US dollars, which means that ordinary families can purchase a house with a construction area of ​​303 square meters with a salary of 4 years. In fact, it is this price that is too high for Americans. House prices in the history of the United States are usually two to four times the residents' annual income.

Let's go back and look at the housing burden of Shanghai residents. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2010, the average annual salary of urban employees in non-state-owned enterprises in Shanghai was 71,874 yuan. We calculated the income of a couple of people in government departments or state-owned enterprises. The annual income is 143,748 yuan, and the current total is 303 square meters. The price is 3,339,600 yuan, which takes about 24 years of family income, which is 6 times that of the United States. The income of workers and peasants in the private sector in China is far lower than that of non-private units. The median household income in Shanghai is certainly much lower than 143,748 yuan. The number of years required to purchase a house is actually longer.

If we reduce the housing standard to one-third of the United States, that is, an area of ​​100 square meters, Shanghai's higher-income families will also need eight years of wages. Since housing prices are positively related to the income of local residents, housing prices are also high in high-income areas, housing prices are low in low-income areas, and the housing burden of Shanghai residents is also roughly the burden of housing in other parts of China.

From another angle, we analyze how the housing burden of the Chinese people is different from that of other countries. The United Nations believes that reasonable housing prices should be 3 to 6 years of income to buy a comfortable home. According to the "Statistical Communique on National Economic and Social Development in 2010" issued by the National Bureau of Statistics, the per capita net income of rural residents was 5,919 yuan, and the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 19,109 yuan. The population of both urban and rural areas in China is almost equal. We can know that the national average annual income is 12,514 yuan. According to the "Main Data Bulletin of the Sixth National Population Census in 2010", the average household size per household in China is 3.1, and the total household income is 38,793 yuan. If you use 4 years of income to buy a 303-square-meter house like the United States, you need 155,172 yuan, an average of 512 yuan per square meter. Of course, there are also other factors in China's high housing prices, such as the process of urbanization, traditional awareness, and so on. But even if these factors are removed, the current high prices may still be distant from ordinary people.

American housing has a real estate tax of around 2%, but this is not a big burden compared to their income. Because of the property tax, the behavior of real estate speculation has been limited to a certain extent. As a result, housing prices in the United States have basically remained stable for decades, and people generally do not purchase surplus housing vacancies. At the end of September 2011, the United States had a total of 13,2353,000 housing units, and the vacancy rate for housing was only 2.4%.

Judging from the media exposure of one after another "ghost town" (residential area with high vacancy rate), China's real estate investment has been overheated, speculation has caused a large number of housing vacant. Foreign governments regularly publish housing vacancy rates to guide people’s real estate investment and housing consumption. China does not count the vacancy rate of housing, which is one of the reasons for the blind investment in real estate and the sharp rise and fall of housing prices.

In the 21st century, China has seen two trends in demographic issues at the same time: one is to reduce the number of children; the other is to age. Assuming there is no abnormal death, each couple should have two children to keep our total population constant. However, the average childbearing age of the Chinese is about 25 years old. According to the current “one couple and one child” family planning policy, it means that the population of our country will rapidly decrease, which will lead to an increase in the vacancy rate of housing at an alarming rate. According to projections, the population of China will begin to decline around 2020. Plus, some families now buy their sons and grandchildren's houses. After that, “ghost towns” will increase.

Through the comparison of domestic and foreign housing prices, we know that China’s current housing prices are far too high. With the fact that the housing vacancy rate and the population of the future are drastically reduced, we know that China’s future housing demand will decline rapidly. From this, we can conclude that the current decline in house prices, real estate adjustments, it is an inevitable trend. However, the question of how to reduce or where the prices of Chinese housing are dropped is also a difficult problem in the decision-making wisdom.

Filtering Healthcare Series

Filtering Healthcare Series,Filter Protection Cotton,Hot Air Cotton,White Thermal Insulation Cotton

Dongguan Guangyao Nonwoven Technology Co., Ltd. , https://www.dggywfkj.com