Inflection point looms, housing prices "steady decline"

At the end of 2011, the recently held Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for the development of the real estate market next year, stating that it will continue to adhere to the real estate control policy and unswervingly consolidate and expand the results of real estate market regulation; Beijing also announced recently that it will continue next year. Maintain the purchase restriction policy. It can be predicted that "integration" and "reconstruction" are bound to become the theme of the real estate market in 2012, and the pressure and risks faced by the housing enterprises will continue to increase. To this end, many housing companies launched the final battle in 2011, intends to exchange funds through a variety of promotional methods, beachfront housing market at the end of the year, housing prices have steadily dropped, the property market has entered a substantial "to inventory phase."

According to the statistics of the Chain Home Real Estate Market Research Department, the Jingcheng property market has been used by large real estate companies such as Longhu, Vanke, R&F, Evergrande, Country Garden, and Greentown as a means to set off the wind at the end of the year. Most projects cut prices. The rate exceeds 20%, and some even reach 40%. In addition to substantial price cuts, at the end of the year, in the sales market, “zero down payment”, “subsidy for mortgages,” and “commitment to price reduction” and other promotional methods have emerged in an endless stream. Large and small developers have made every effort to increase their attractiveness of purchase.

It is understood that in the past two weeks, the volume of residential housing in Beijing has escalated, and the number of transactions in just two weeks has exceeded the monthly turnover in November. Industry experts pointed out that the deepening of real estate sales at the end of the year is one of the important factors contributing to this phenomenon.

According to data from Yahao, 9 actual opening projects in Beijing in the first half of December (as of the 15th), totaling 1,744 sets of commercial housing and 219,500 square meters, a drop of more than 40%. Last week (December 12-December 17) Beijing residential transaction rankings, the top two deals were super low-priced products.

Among them, the Jinwei Vanke City project ranked first with 198 units of transaction volume, and its average transaction price of 12,755 yuan per square meter was lowered by 32% compared with the highest average transaction price in February, and 14,500 yuan/square after the first price reduction. Compared with the average price level of rice, the second round of price reduction in this round is still as high as nearly 2,000 yuan per square meter. Compared with the surrounding projects, the price advantage has been established and naturally won a good volume. Last week, the transaction ranked second. In the Longhu Times Tianjie, two low-cost openings all achieved good results. Last week, 108 sets were sold, and the average transaction price was only 10,556 yuan per square meter. The low price itself has already constituted a strong persuasion for buyers. force.

It is worth mentioning that the East Asia Yip Pavilion, a pure new disc known to the public as a result of the publication of the cost-based costing statement, entered the market last week, and launched 486 suites for the first time. The project was priced at 13,200 yuan/m2. Based on the actual transaction, certain concessions will still be given. Gao Hao, deputy general manager of Yahao, believes that with the demonstration of the effective sales effect of Longhu Times Tianjie, East Asia Yip Pavilion, which adopts a similar sales strategy, will also achieve considerable results.

The decline in house prices continued to increase. Just a few days ago, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the changes in house prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities throughout the country in November. In the 70 large and medium-sized cities in November, the prices of newly-built residential buildings fell by more than half for the first time in the city, reaching 49, an increase of 15 compared to the previous month; there are only 5 cities that have risen. There are 51 cities where the price of second-hand houses has fallen, an increase of 13 from the previous month. Following the initial inflection point in national housing prices, the national average housing prices continued to show a declining trend compared to the previous month.

Wei Jinghui, vice president of Wai Yip I Love My Home Group, said that after a one-year limit on loan purchases, the nation’s housing prices have remained stable and declining. The city’s share of home prices has reached around 90%, house prices have entered a decline channel, and the price turning point is also Already established. However, due to the current decline in housing prices and the declining demand in the market, which was only achieved through administrative measures such as purchase restrictions and limited loans, the shortage of supply in the housing market has not been fundamentally reversed, and the potential pressure for rising house prices remains high. At the end of the year, purchase delays may be announced in various places.

After the regulation of the property market and the reshuffle of the industry, the overall situation of the market is becoming more and more complicated. The instability of housing prices and the uncertainty of future trends are gradually rising. At the time of the year, the development companies will soon face the centralized settlement of construction accounts, and the cash flow pressure Began to increase dramatically. Hu Jinghui expects that with the clarification of future policy expectations, more and more new discs will join the price cuts in the near future, and prices will further decline. By the end of the year, the overall housing prices of the entire domestic property market, including Beijing, will continue to decline steadily. The number of cities with falling house prices will continue to increase, and cities where house prices have already fallen will continue to see further declines in house prices.

From a macro perspective, the national real estate investment in November fell by 2.4% from the previous month, and the national real estate development climate index fell into a sluggish zone for the first time in 28 months. The impact of regulation on housing prices has increased from surface to surface. Although the current housing prices have seen a decline in the price chain, they are still rising. Under the keynote of “staying true to the fact that property controls are not relaxed”, if the current housing price is kept down, it is expected that there will be a substantial downward adjustment in prices from March to next year around March.

Zhang Yue, the chief analyst of Chain Home Real Estate, revealed that compared with second-tier cities, the first-tier cities have seen shorter periods of rising house prices this year, and the chain has fallen faster. On the one hand, this depends on the severity of the limited purchases of loans for these cities. On the other hand, as the first-tier cities will continue to tighten their policies next year, in order to avoid the risk of continued downward prices and re-compression of profitability next year, the prices of housing companies will turn around in the market. The willingness to reduce prices after looming has obviously increased.

Steady Regulations and Consolidation of Results According to the statistics of the Chain Home Real Estate Market Research Department, the nationwide city-to-city limit index was 99.77 in November, including 29 city-on-month declines, and an increase of 9 points from October; the city's chain index was not 99.85, and there was a decline of 20 cities on a month-to-month basis. It increased by 6 from October. Among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, there are 54 cities with clear control targets, of which 10 cities with clear ranges of increase, such as Yueyang, Shijiazhuang, Dandong, and Nanchang, only look at the comparison between November’s price and last year’s increase in base prices. Basically, they can complete the regulatory goals. In addition, in cities with large regional price increases, the price control targets can basically be achieved.

“Since most city house price control targets are only equivalent to limiting the maximum increase, the difficulty of completing the regulatory goals is not much.” Zhang Yue, chief analyst of Chain Home Real Estate, believes that “the spread of price reductions in the country has also weakened some of the restrictions Cities or cities with less restrictive purchases have reached the difficulty of achieving regulatory objectives. This also means that although some cities have achieved regulatory objectives, real price increases are not low.”

In the interview, Zhang Yue made several predictions for the property market next year: First, the transaction volume of the property market will continue to remain low in the next year, but it will not be too sluggish, and the dynamic adjustment of supply, transaction, and price will be gradually balanced. While the property market regulation and control policies continue, we will continue to provide certain encouragement to customers who just need them. In particular, on the basis of “maintaining a reasonable increase in the total amount of money and credit and optimizing the credit structure”, the financial sector will increase its support for home buyers. Second, prices will fall further next year, and the pace of price cuts will be stable to avoid buying demand. Centralized bursts may adversely affect overall macroeconomic regulation. As the pillar of the traditional national economy, the real estate industry will inevitably exert influence on the national income, financial stock market, land finance and other areas. The pace and magnitude of price decline under the control should not be too fast or excessive to avoid the real estate market. There is a risk of volatility outside itself and outside the industry. Taking Beijing as an example, house prices rose first and then fell during the year, but the prices have not yet returned. With the unravelling of regulation next year, the price bubble has more than 10% compression; at the same time, “cash is king” has become a cold market. The important principle of the survival of the next housing enterprises, high-speed turnover of the sales strategy will continue into the first half of next year, next year, the real estate industry expansion tightened, most housing prices will be carefully laid out, cautiously take the ground. While maintaining a marked increase in residential land supply, prices may continue to fall, and foreign investors are more likely to enter the bargain-hunting grounds.

Similar to Zhang Yue’s view, the Beijing Zhongyuan Market Research Department believes that competition in the land market in Beijing is far lower than in the previous two years. For some companies with funds, the opportunity to obtain land at a low price is already present. At the same time, the land market gradually began to react to the property market. The deserted land market will speed up the emergence of the property market inflection point, and the land price adjustment will bring greater incentive to the developers to lower prices, not only directly lower the project sales price, but also Make developers consider selling at a reduced price in order to obtain funds.

â–  Expert opinion Weiye I love my family vice president Hu Jinghui How much is the price of housing down to justified?

From a static point of view, the reasonable range of housing prices in mainland China should be 6 to 8 times the total household income.

Dynamically, the average annual house price increase should be higher than the CPI, lower than the increase in per capita disposable income.

The current decline in house prices is mainly due to administrative interventions such as restrictions on purchases and limited loans. Administrative measures do not govern the long-term mechanism of the property market. Once the time is ripe, there will be a day of withdrawal. In the medium to long term, housing prices in mainland China will continue to rise. However, as long as the increase in house prices can be controlled within a reasonable range, and GDP, per capita disposable income, CPI, and housing price increase remain at a relatively reasonable level and ratio, then the increase in housing prices will not bring greater benefits to the lives of ordinary people. Stress, on the contrary, people will also benefit from rising house prices.

Assuming that the growth rate of GDP will remain at around 10%, the per capita disposable income will increase by about 8%, the increase in house prices will be around 5-6%, and the increase in CPI will be around 3-4%. This will be a very reasonable ratio.

The people can share more of the fruits of economic development and increase their income. The increase in housing prices is lower than the increase in income. The higher ratio between China’s housing prices and household income will gradually decline, and ordinary people will increasingly be able to afford affordable housing. The increase in housing prices is slightly higher than the increase in CPI, which will be conducive to the preservation and appreciation of real estate; the increase in per capita income greater than the increase in CPI will effectively prevent the increase in prices and increase the pressure on the lives of ordinary people.

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