Vegetables are catching up with the price of meat, rice is constantly rising in price, and electricity is scarce... A once-in-a-century drought is raging across the country's southwestern region. In addition to the impact of drinking water on humans and animals, the drought is slowly taking...
"Approximately one week's drought will increase the loss to Yunnan by about 2 billion yuan." A person in charge of the Yunnan Drought Relief Headquarters commented. However, a rain at the end of March did not really â€œthirstâ€, the drought continued, and its economic damage will become more and more serious.
Agricultural products, food and food prices soar
For people in the dry areas, in addition to water shortage, the most troublesome thing is that prices are rising day by day. "Bitter vegetables have risen to 7 yuan / kg, and the highest in previous years is rarely more than 3 yuan!" In an interview with Zhanyi County, Yunnan Province, local people complained to reporters. Locals are used to eating this vegetable every year, but this year they have to pay a high price. â€œThe price of vegetables is catching up with the price of pork!â€
The reporter learned that Yunnan is a major province for the production of vegetables and flowers. However, due to long-term drought, production has dropped sharply. In order to meet market demand and stabilize prices, it has to transfer Kunming, pumpkin, eggplant and other Kunming shortages from Sichuan and Hainan, Guangxi and Hunan. Vegetables.
On March 30, Kunming Fuxin Farmers Market, a vegetable vendor told reporters: â€œThe price increase of cabbage, cabbage, beans, cucumber and bitter gourd is very obvious. The price has risen by five cents to a dollar. There is only 1.5 yuan last year. One kilogram of cabbage, the price is now almost two dollars a kilogram, the leek has increased from two dollars a year last year to three dollars."
Food is also rising. On March 26, the grain price in Kunming's grain and oil market was raised. Compared with February, rice prices have risen by about 10%. The price information of Kunming Wulidu Grain and Oil Wholesale Market shows that the current royal tribute has been raised from 89 yuan/25 kg at the beginning of February to 94 yuan; Tianxia An quality rice and Fenggu rice, also from 80 yuan / 25 kg, respectively Upgraded to 83 yuan and 85 yuan.
The main reason for the price increase is undoubtedly the shortage of supply. According to the data provided by Yunnan Province, as of March 18, among the affected crops, the crops planted in autumn and winter were the most affected, reaching 32.28 million mu, accounting for 87% of the planted area, and the harvest was 14.51 million mu. Fruit, tea, sericulture and rubber. The five types of economic fruits and fruits in the coffee industry were affected by 14 million mu, accounting for about 80% of the total area. It is estimated that the province's Xiaochun grain (summer grain) will reduce production by 60% due to disasters, and the affected area of â€‹â€‹forest land will reach 47.32 million mu and 8.2 million mu will be scrapped. The direct economic loss of agriculture in the province has reached 17 billion yuan.
â—‹ Energy, hydropower, multi-stop production, need for external emergency
On March 30, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Doing a Good Job in Power Operation in 2010". The notice pointed out that due to various uncertain factors, there will still be a possibility of tight power supply in some parts of the country this year.
In fact, this is the â€œsmall hydropower provinceâ€ such as Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, etc., which has been stretched by the drought and has to rely on the province to adjust electricity to ease the supply tension. The severe drought in the past few days has caused many southwestern regions to suffer, and some hydropower units have been nearly shut down. The hydropower generation in various places is much lower than the historical period.
The reporter recently learned in Linyi City, Yunnan Province, where the Lancang River flows. In March, the city lacked 2 million kilowatt-hours of electricity, and the actual power shortage was 900,000 kilowatt-hours. Due to drought, the power generation was reduced by 58 million kWh, and the economic loss was 20.135 million yuan, resulting in an industrial economic loss of nearly 400 million yuan.
The decline in hydropower has been accompanied by a sharp rise in demand for thermal power, and once again, coal is tight, and coal-fired power plants are also strained. In Sichuan, the inventory of some power plants has been below the 7-day warning line, while in Guangxi, the drought has caused 90% of the hydropower to fall into the â€œç˜«ç—ªâ€.
State Grid said that in order to support the southwest as much as possible, Huazhong Power Grid organized power support in the southwest under the national grid dispatch. Among them, 1 million kilowatts of electricity comes from Jiangxi and Henan thermal power, and 1 million kilowatts is input by the Three Gorges Hydropower. Experts estimate that the drought will at least cause more than 60% of hydropower generation in the country to be seriously affected. According to the data, in 2009, the hydropower generation in the five provinces (cities, districts) accounted for 44.7% of the national total.
Experts also said that if hydropower generation accounts for 12% of the national total in normal years, the drought will increase the demand for thermal coal by about 3.5% per month. Some insiders pointed out that once the demand for coal is increased, it is easy to break the balance of supply of coal before the coal price rise, which will affect the power supply situation in the country.
â—‹ Local price increase is difficult to avoid
Dry areas, food, vegetables... Almost all varieties affected by drought have started to increase prices. Some experts said that from the current situation, the local price increase in the southwestern heavy drought area is difficult to avoid.
As an important production area of â€‹â€‹China's various crops and cash crops, such as sugar, rapeseed and tea, the sharp reduction of the output of these varieties will undoubtedly promote the rise of food prices, and the weight of food in the consumer price index (CPI) exceeds 30%. In the period when China's economy is continuing to rise, the drought in the southwest will play a role in fuelling the continued rise of CPI.
For example, the most basic variety of grain, according to statistics, from 1997 to 2008, the proportion of crops planted in the five provinces of Southwest China accounted for 18.4%-19.5% of the country, and the drought in the southwest will have a significant negative impact on crop yield.
As most of the small spring crops are not harvested and the water source is insufficient, the reporter found that many heavy drought areas began to sell pigs, sheep and other livestock. "My family of 5 sheep have been sold, only sold more than 1,000 yuan, before they can sell more than 2,000 yuan!" Yang Fenggang, a villager from Banpo Village, Xuanwei City, Yunnan Province, told reporters that since January, the drought has increased and many people began to sell sheep. , pigs, which makes the price very low.
"In addition to selling live pigs, some people began to sell piglets, and they were worried that they would not be able to survive. The number of live pigs will definitely decline." In Qujing City, the main producing area of â€‹â€‹pigs in Yunnan Province, the relevant person in charge of the city is worried. Once suffering from the double impact of the epidemic and the drought, the stock of pigs in our country has dropped significantly. Then, at the arrival of the next rising cycle, the pressure on the CPI should not be underestimated.
According to the latest report released by Zhongjinâ€™s chief economist Ha Jiming, the price of the hog market has rebounded sharply due to the disease. If pork prices rise by 30%, inflation may exceed 5% in the middle of the year. (Southern Daily News)
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